What Percentage of Football is Luck?

If you look at football and see how different events over a season change the course of a club's campaign, it becomes clear that luck plays a large part in the results of football.

On a personal level, our Sunday League team drew two games near the end of the season against higher placed teams conceding goals in the last minute of both games. In the first game, the referee gave a free kick for a tackle that was never a foul and the opposition scored a worldy from the free kick. In the second game, the striker handballed it but the ref didn't see it. The four extra points we'd have gained from two wins as opposed to two draws would have see us pushing for promotion. Instead we ended up just above the relegation zone.

In Cardiff City's terms, think about the late goals against Sunderland at home, the penalty we never got at Everton and other such injustices.

What percentage of football is luck? Or do you believe that luck is just a result of effort put in by a team and that teams create their own luck?

If you look at football and see how different events over a season change the course of a club's campaign, it becomes clear that luck plays a large part in the results of football.

On a personal level, our Sunday League team drew two games near the end of the season against higher placed teams conceding goals in the last minute of both games. In the first game, the referee gave a free kick for a tackle that was never a foul and the opposition scored a worldy from the free kick. In the second game, the striker handballed it but the ref didn't see it. The four extra points we'd have gained from two wins as opposed to two draws would have see us pushing for promotion. Instead we ended up just above the relegation zone.

In Cardiff City's terms, think about the late goals against Sunderland at home, the penalty we never got at Everton and other such injustices.

What percentage of football is luck? Or do you believe that luck is just a result of effort put in by a team and that teams create their own luck?

depends what you class as luck really. I dont consider the home game v Sunderland as lucky see, or missed penalty opportunites, its not luck, its just in the hands of one person.

No something like the Everton goal (away game) that bad luck as far as im concerned, luck for sure pays a part, but a small part over 38 games i think. Teams generally end up where they deserve to be.

Very little.

It is no coincidence that the best 4 teams finish in the top 4 every year and the worst finish in the bottom 3.

If you believe in luck then you believe in magic as far as im concerned. Good things happen and bad things happen, but down to this mystical power called "luck"? Not for me.

Not so much luck.
Just favouritism.

I've never believed in luck - I believe more in science

But probabilities will be cruel from time to time, as probabilities will be kind from time to time.

Overall you would assume things tend to balance out.

However there will always be outliers on both sides of the coin that could potentially stay on that side of the coin for as long as we're alive. Hypothetically of course

Very little.

There are lots of events, and refereeing consistencies, and a ball bouncing one way rather than the other, sure.

However, the stark and unfortunate fact is a better team than us would have rode the storm of individual unfortunate incidents and still accumulated enough points over a season to stay up.

Even in a game - we respond to adversity by folding like a deck of cards. Other teams respond to adversity by fighting, and finding a way back, not every time, but enough times to make a differnce.

In shorts, 'lucky' incidents, individual and seperate, happen throughout a season. But the table never, ever lies about a team's ability, strength and organisation over a season. You end up entirely where you deserve to.

Zero. You finish where you deserve to finish. Over the course of a season you will be served you just rewards. The odd fluke or worldy doesn't help though.

i do agree that the better sides will get there.and the poor sides will strugle within reason.......

but luck certainly comes into it.......
no more so than with the fixture list...when the fixtures are compiled there is no way of knowing who will be inform at certain points in the season..... Stoke and Crystal palace have both been top and bottom of the current form table this year.........if it isnt luck when you play sides,what is it.?.. i cant think of a fairer way than to play every other team home and away, so if its fair, it must be good or bad luck to catch a side inform or out of form..........???
.but we have played a few sides of late who are also poor but in good form......it has to matter surely

i do agree that the better sides will get there.and the poor sides will strugle within reason.......

but luck certainly comes into it.......
no more so than with the fixture list...when the fixtures are compiled there is no way of knowing who will be inform at certain points in the season..... Stoke and Crystal palace have both been top and bottom of the current form table this year.........if it isnt luck when you play sides,what is it.?.. i cant think of a fairer way than to play every other team home and away, so if its fair, it must be good or bad luck to catch a side inform or out of form..........???
.but we have played a few sides of late who are also poor but in good form......it has to matter surely

but we have also played better sides in poorer form.

Southampton and tomorrows oppoenents for example.

i do agree that the better sides will get there.and the poor sides will strugle within reason.......

but luck certainly comes into it.......
no more so than with the fixture list...when the fixtures are compiled there is no way of knowing who will be inform at certain points in the season..... Stoke and Crystal palace have both been top and bottom of the current form table this year.........if it isnt luck when you play sides,what is it.?.. i cant think of a fairer way than to play every other team home and away, so if its fair, it must be good or bad luck to catch a side inform or out of form..........???
.but we have played a few sides of late who are also poor but in good form......it has to matter surely

Not for me - We played Man City at home in the middle of honeymoon period. Any other time we would have got a pasting.

We played Man Utd home with half their team out.

Yes we have also had players returning from injury just before they play us, but, ultimately, these are minor, minor issues over the course of a season.

Also - 'in form and out of form' are both very subjective. We played many teams when they werent in great form but we prepared appalingly and played really really badly. That's not fixture list bad luck, its us being no good.

Luck, although we rant and rave and complain when it goes against us (i am as guilty as any), does even out over a season. And, to use an age old cliche, you do 'make your own luck'.

We haven't as we haven't been good enough.

i do agree that the better sides will get there.and the poor sides will strugle within reason.......

but luck certainly comes into it.......
no more so than with the fixture list...when the fixtures are compiled there is no way of knowing who will be inform at certain points in the season..... Stoke and Crystal palace have both been top and bottom of the current form table this year.........if it isnt luck when you play sides,what is it.?.. i cant think of a fairer way than to play every other team home and away, so if its fair, it must be good or bad luck to catch a side inform or out of form..........???
.but we have played a few sides of late who are also poor but in good form......it has to matter surely

Not for me - We played Man City at home in the middle of honeymoon period. Any other time we would have got a pasting.

We played Man Utd home with half their team out.

Yes we have also had players returning from injury just before they play us, but, ultimately, these are minor, minor issues over the course of a season.

Also - 'in form and out of form' are both very subjective. We played many teams when they werent in great form but we prepared appalingly and played really really badly. That's not fixture list bad luck, its us being no good.

Luck, although we rant and rave and complain when it goes against us (i am as guilty as any), does even out over a season. And, to use an age old cliche, you do 'make your own luck'.

We haven't as we haven't been good enough.

Also - I hate to say it but - having most of the smaller teams at home in the second half of the season was very fortunate. We messed up a great opportunity there to put a good run of results together.

If you look at football and see how different events over a season change the course of a club's campaign, it becomes clear that luck plays a large part in the results of football.

On a personal level, our Sunday League team drew two games near the end of the season against higher placed teams conceding goals in the last minute of both games. In the first game, the referee gave a free kick for a tackle that was never a foul and the opposition scored a worldy from the free kick. In the second game, the striker handballed it but the ref didn't see it. The four extra points we'd have gained from two wins as opposed to two draws would have see us pushing for promotion. Instead we ended up just above the relegation zone.

In Cardiff City's terms, think about the late goals against Sunderland at home, the penalty we never got at Everton and other such injustices.

What percentage of football is luck? Or do you believe that luck is just a result of effort put in by a team and that teams create their own luck?

i know exactly what you mean, we lost about 6pts this season by dropping leads or draws we should have held late on for stupid reasons liks last min pens and dodgy offsides etc. ended up 6th but could have been 4th and a chance of going up but there we are. however i do think in grand scheme of things it evens out but we have had some terrible decisions consisntely this year for cardiff.

In an individual game can be huge. Over the course of the season very little.

Disclaimer: the refs are definitely biased to the big teams

i was not making a case for us being where we are due to bad luck............just making a point that who you play at what point of the season can have an effect.........nothing unfair about it........just luck......mt ref to our rescent results was just they are fresh in my memory.......Stoke with 16 pts from 7 games....stretch that over 35 games and its 80 points....when you consider the line between being a prem club or being a chamionship club could be just 1 point its important..

What about West Brom!

Shane Long went down very easily against West Brom (Picture: Getty Images)
I am going to clear one thing up at the start of this article. There are plenty of factors behind West Bromwich Albion’s current plight in the murky depths of the relegation mire. I am certainly not trying to excuse what has been a season of dire performances from both the players and the board.

Lack of investment in the transfer market, dawdling in the appointment of managers, an ageing, over-rated squad and above all a chronic lack of desire are all more than feasible explanations as to why the Baggies face the very real prospect of relegation from the Premier League for the first time since 2009.

What can’t be legislated for however is the fact that Albion’s situation has been compounded by a series of scandalous refereeing decisions that could prove costly when the season comes to a close in May.

The Baggies have been on the end of an unprecedented number of unjustifiable decisions by match officials, all of which seem to have come at key points in the game and ultimately seem to have cost Albion valuable points.

The most notorious of these decisions of course was the non-penalty given by referee Andre Marriner (the man responsible for the bizarre sending off of Arsenal’s Kieran Gibbs at the weekend) in the 94th minute at Stamford Bridge, costing Albion all three points and the chance to go down in history as the team that broke Mourinho’s perfect unbeaten Chelsea home record.

Whilst this was sickening enough for Baggies faithful, it is just one of what can be called a comedy of errors made by match officials at the expense of Albion this campaign.


Andre Marriner sent off the wrong player yesterday, but it is not his only mistake this season (Picture: Getty Images)
At Selhurst Park a little over a month ago, with the score at 2-1 and Albion pressing for an equaliser, a Marouanne Chamakh dive saw Palace awarded an all important penalty, putting them 3-1 and allowing them to see the game out with ease. Similarly, in the 91st minute of opening day fixture- Southampton full back Luke Shaw went down under minimal contact to win his side a match winning penalty.

When Albion however have been deserving of a similar decision, the referees have non-forthcoming. In the 70th minute, with the score 0-0 at the Britannia Stadium, Youssouf Mulumbu is caught on the back of the ankle by Charlie Adam with such force, his boot comes off his foot. Howard Webb says no penalty. The game finishes 0-0.

Then of course, there was the theatrics of Shane Long this weekend. His dive ultimately changed the path of the game, and as well as sealing Long’s status as somewhat of a villain amongst Albion fans, has cost Albion more integral points.

It is clear to see that Albion have been let down at key points by the sub-standard nature of Premier League refereeing. With the relegation battle as tight as ever, the points lost could be the difference between the riches of the Premier League and the abyss of the Football League.

Is there not something wrong about that?

If you look at football and see how different events over a season change the course of a club's campaign, it becomes clear that luck plays a large part in the results of football.

On a personal level, our Sunday League team drew two games near the end of the season against higher placed teams conceding goals in the last minute of both games. In the first game, the referee gave a free kick for a tackle that was never a foul and the opposition scored a worldy from the free kick. In the second game, the striker handballed it but the ref didn't see it. The four extra points we'd have gained from two wins as opposed to two draws would have see us pushing for promotion. Instead we ended up just above the relegation zone.

In Cardiff City's terms, think about the late goals against Sunderland at home, the penalty we never got at Everton and other such injustices.

What percentage of football is luck? Or do you believe that luck is just a result of effort put in by a team and that teams create their own luck?

Steve, I dont believe in luck, as I believe you make your own luck in life and in football it evens out over a season, u get what u finally deserve come May.

if your attacking a penalty area more that the other team you get the 'luck' Also a referee favours the team that is in the ascendency or has a bigger rep

I think what is often attributed to luck in the game is mistaken for the increased randomness of a comparative lack of opportunity.

The sport of football is designed, or at least has evolved, to set an absolute premium on scoring. Defense "wins" any given possession against offense the vast majority of the time. For that reason, the best teams include the most elite scorers, but possibly even more importantly, the most CONSISTENT defenders and defensive scheme. So far this year, the average number of goals scored in a Premier League match sits at 2.73. Considering a home side owns only a 0.36 goal advantage, ANY mistake on defense that results in a score, by the numbers, at least, dooms that team.

This is the reason, in my opinion, that any relegation-zone team CAN (and occasionally does) defeat an elite team. A lapse by either an individual or team can give up the all-important goal. When capacity to score against a defense is low (on the offense's own merits), the randomness increases. Now, a season bears out the elite teams, where, in a high-scoring sport like Cricket, it's a lot more definitive match-to-match which team is stronger. It's hard to hide or strategize against deficiencies when that many points are available, and so much more capacity is given to an offense than a defense.

Luck plays it's part in life so football isn't any different. Couldn't give you a % though. Having said that "luck" is often used as a loose term just to describe fortunate events when in reality there could be a lot of hard work that goes in to make it happen.

in this league a lot.

give or take any given day we could of easily been six points up purely from the flip of play a few inches of a post.

for me that's huge luck..

in this league a lot.

give or take any given day we could of easily been six points up purely from the flip of play a few inches of a post.

for me that's huge luck..

in this league a lot.

give or take any given day we could of easily been six points up purely from the flip of play a few inches of a post.

for me that's huge luck..

in this league a lot.

give or take any given day we could of easily been six points up purely from the flip of play a few inches of a post.

for me that's huge luck..

Of course there is luck in any aspect of life and football, like many other sports is no different.

We have had good and bad luck this season.

Examples are Coleman scoring with a miss hit shot, where as Marshall had covered the area where the ball would have gone had Coleman hit it correctly.

The whole of that passage of play, from the over hit cross that if it had gone one foot longer would have gone out of play. The player who made that cross did not deliberately over hit that ball so it wasn't controlled to go that distance. One foot longer from a cross that was in the region of 120 feet long. That was luck.

Colback's injury time equaliser for Sunderland that hit one of our players and looped the ball over Marshall. Colback did not deliberately aim at that specific part of the defenders body for it to take that the ball on that specific trajectory.

A few centimetres either way and the ball may have taken a different trajectory.

What was not luck was the fact that Colback put the ball into an area where anything could and did happen.

As I've written before, there are fine lines. Ole has talked about fine margins. Malky talked about the same, as do most managers from time to time.

It is how you respond at any time that defines the players and the team and at times, we have sadly let ourselves down.

We have seen it in the past.

A couple of seasons ago against a team that I can't recall, we were rattling the woodwork many times, lots of shots on goal. I believe it was when Bellamy was here for the first time with Chopra. Players didn't seem so focussed when through on goal as there seemed as though there would be many more chances to come.

As the game wore by 60-70 minutes, there was increasing anxiety that it was 'going to be one of those days', or 'not our day today'.

That's defeatist as luck doesn't know the colour of the shirt.

Pressure and stress are created within one's own mind.

How we deal with perceived pressure and stressful situations define how well you achieve the actions you take, the decisions made, the right tactics, the most effective muscle tension to effect the exact action you want.

So, there is luck good and not so good. It's how you deal with whatever the situation is in front of you that matters.

Lots..I don't understand how anyone can think differently....Not so much in the league as it does tend to even itself out but certainly in cup tournaments. You look at most of the Champion league winners over recent years and they have had their fair share, no doubt. Here's a very quick memory recall.........Barcelona (Illiesta) scoring with the last kick of the game in the semi-final against Chelsea in 2009. Chelsea winning the Cup in 2012, I wouldn't know where to start on that one. John Terry slipping and hitting the post when his penalty would have won the cup for Chelsea in 2008. The width of a post can make a huge difference to results and careers. Luis Garcia being awarded a goal, when it didn't cross the line, again against Chelsea in the Champions league semi-final 2005, allowing Liverpool to make that amazing comeback against Milan. Alex Ferguson was one game away from the sack (FA cup game against Forest in 89 I think it was). What if they had lost that game? His career, Utd's lucky win against Munich in 1999 wouldn't have even happened (BTW Bayern hit the bar late on in that game, OGS's career wouldn't have been half as memorable if that had gone 5 inches lower)
Luck makes a huge difference. A lot of people want to be in control and so don't want to admit that but it's true.

This sums it up good for today at least. Fantastic save though.

Zaha Shot.png

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Are you suggesting that was lucky?

Are you suggesting that was lucky?

Ohh didnt see you there O Great Roath Put you on ignore to free myself of your embarrassing arguments on how to get Tan out the next week. But then again you dont need me to comment and make you look like an idiot do you?

So you realise you have just stated something was luck while labelling it "a fantastic save".

So you realise you have just stated something was luck while labelling it "a fantastic save".

I would not be surprised if that is how you interoperate the thread and picture, not one bit
Now jog on back to your mom