When will Cardiff finish above Swansea next?

If we stay up, I would say next season or the season after. The Swansea team isn't getting much better and I think they've reached their full potential. But even if we do get relegated I think it will only take 2/3 years.

just playing devils advocate here but what do you mean by "reached its full potential"?

In other words, I don't think they'll get any better than what they are

Of course we will but these things take time, a concept lost on most Cardiffians.

By being the most profitable team in the premier league, 10 years of £30 million profits gives us a £300m war chest.

It is your boom or bust mentality and ethos that is key to my forecast.

If we stay up, I would say next season or the season after. The Swansea team isn't getting much better and I think they've reached their full potential. But even if we do get relegated I think it will only take 2/3 years.

just playing devils advocate here but what do you mean by "reached its full potential"?

In other words, I don't think they'll get any better than what they are

i understand that. i mean why do you think a club that has probably improved in quality of squad for the last 4 years or so (at least) will now stop improving?

Well then im not sure what you mean by not getting high attendances will stagnate the club? I assumed you must mean finances?

What highs am I suggesting we will achieve? I haven't suggested reaching any highs apart from my opinion that being above you will be a sight seen for a long long time due to the differences in finances in Prem and champ clubs.

I dont know any other Orem club with the infrastructure we do. Maybe WBA but even then it is only an off field infrastructure where as ours has one on and off the field.

well you're either suggesting one of 2 things

1) swansea will kick on and become a regular top 10 side or more
2) or city will stay in the champ/slip down the leagues

if neither of these is the case then it stands to reason that our points difference will remain single figures when we are in the same division and, as mentioned earlier, statisticly we are bound to finish above you within the next 20 years.

so which of those two options do you think will ensure you a finish above us for 20 years? or do you think we'll both be there or there abouts and you constanly pip us by a few results...because you're a clever guy...you must see how unlikley that is

Im suggesting neither.

Our usual season brings 47 ish points, we have an even better side this year and would have gained even more should we have not had to play 60 matches including playing all over Europe in my opinion. You have 30 points and will probably be around the 33 point mark come seasons end. Thats a pretty big difference.

Our infrastructure allows sustainability, we can grow because of how we are run. You cant grow as you will always be handicapped by your debt, this is an intrinsic thing that takes decades to resolve as it is within your clubs and fans ethos to borrow in order to gain an advantage.

I fully expect a 45-50 point season next year considering we are not going to be in Europe and I dont feel you will get near that in decades, especially with the financial clout we will have over you and other championship sides.

so the short answer....guesswork

you know for a fact that if we were to go up (or stay up) and have maybe 3 good years in the prem our debt would be significantly reduced (or at least have the potential to be) due to the financial rewards being a stable prem club brings (as you mentioned earlier in the thread, i believe you stated that you could be £30m per season better off than us should we stay in the champ)

and lets not forget that if a club becomes successful then the debt has little or no bearing on the club, swansea are one of the most financially stable clubs in the prem, why are they still finishing near the bottom?

another bout of i know everything! solid foundations mmm from outside they look very shakey regarding manager and players and not to mention spew interfering with managers perchasing players or was laudrup lying?? makes you wonder about your inabillity to keep managers for more than 2yrs! as for 20yrs before we are above you what bollocks could happen next year even this year as season not over, all possibillities regardless of the probabillities of it not happening. can i have lottery numbers for next week as you believe you know everything that will happen in future!

and financially you calculate that you will make x amount money but that is subject to circumstances behond even your brilliant financial mind! relegation higher wages & transfers but guess you know these figures for next 20yrs you wil be in premier.

Well then im not sure what you mean by not getting high attendances will stagnate the club? I assumed you must mean finances?

What highs am I suggesting we will achieve? I haven't suggested reaching any highs apart from my opinion that being above you will be a sight seen for a long long time due to the differences in finances in Prem and champ clubs.

I dont know any other Orem club with the infrastructure we do. Maybe WBA but even then it is only an off field infrastructure where as ours has one on and off the field.

well you're either suggesting one of 2 things

1) swansea will kick on and become a regular top 10 side or more
2) or city will stay in the champ/slip down the leagues

if neither of these is the case then it stands to reason that our points difference will remain single figures when we are in the same division and, as mentioned earlier, statisticly we are bound to finish above you within the next 20 years.

so which of those two options do you think will ensure you a finish above us for 20 years? or do you think we'll both be there or there abouts and you constanly pip us by a few results...because you're a clever guy...you must see how unlikley that is

Im suggesting neither.

Our usual season brings 47 ish points, we have an even better side this year and would have gained even more should we have not had to play 60 matches including playing all over Europe in my opinion. You have 30 points and will probably be around the 33 point mark come seasons end. Thats a pretty big difference.

Our infrastructure allows sustainability, we can grow because of how we are run. You cant grow as you will always be handicapped by your debt, this is an intrinsic thing that takes decades to resolve as it is within your clubs and fans ethos to borrow in order to gain an advantage.

I fully expect a 45-50 point season next year considering we are not going to be in Europe and I dont feel you will get near that in decades, especially with the financial clout we will have over you and other championship sides.

so the short answer....guesswork

what else is it going to be, all we can do is try and make as accurate a guess as possible based on factors we know.

you know for a fact that if we were to go up (or stay up) and have maybe 3 good years in the prem our debt would be significantly reduced (or at least have the potential to be) due to the financial rewards being a stable prem club brings (as you mentioned earlier in the thread, i believe you stated that you could be £30m per season better off than us should we stay in the champ)

i dont think it would at all. You have probably lost £30m by being in the Prem this year, its madness. Id expect that to continue.

and lets not forget that if a club becomes successful then the debt has little or no bearing on the club, swansea are one of the most financially stable clubs in the prem, why are they still finishing near the bottom?

we haven't once finished near the bottom. 11th, 9th and probably 12th the longer we stay there the stronger we will become..

another bout of i know everything! solid foundations mmm from outside they look very shakey regarding manager and players and not to mention spew interfering with managers perchasing players or was laudrup lying?? makes you wonder about your inabillity to keep managers for more than 2yrs! as for 20yrs before we are above you what bollocks could happen next year even this year as season not over, all possibillities regardless of the probabillities of it not happening. can i have lottery numbers for next week as you believe you know everything that will happen in future!

and financially you calculate that you will make x amount money but that is subject to circumstances behond even your brilliant financial mind! relegation higher wages & transfers but guess you know these figures for next 20yrs you wil be in premier.

roathie is actually rupert murdoch and has skys TV rights all mapped out until 2040. Lives in oz, has an extensive knowledge of prem finances that not even the swansea board are privy to...all the pieces fit

Well then im not sure what you mean by not getting high attendances will stagnate the club? I assumed you must mean finances?

What highs am I suggesting we will achieve? I haven't suggested reaching any highs apart from my opinion that being above you will be a sight seen for a long long time due to the differences in finances in Prem and champ clubs.

I dont know any other Orem club with the infrastructure we do. Maybe WBA but even then it is only an off field infrastructure where as ours has one on and off the field.

well you're either suggesting one of 2 things

1) swansea will kick on and become a regular top 10 side or more
2) or city will stay in the champ/slip down the leagues

if neither of these is the case then it stands to reason that our points difference will remain single figures when we are in the same division and, as mentioned earlier, statisticly we are bound to finish above you within the next 20 years.

so which of those two options do you think will ensure you a finish above us for 20 years? or do you think we'll both be there or there abouts and you constanly pip us by a few results...because you're a clever guy...you must see how unlikley that is

Im suggesting neither.

Our usual season brings 47 ish points, we have an even better side this year and would have gained even more should we have not had to play 60 matches including playing all over Europe in my opinion. You have 30 points and will probably be around the 33 point mark come seasons end. Thats a pretty big difference.

Our infrastructure allows sustainability, we can grow because of how we are run. You cant grow as you will always be handicapped by your debt, this is an intrinsic thing that takes decades to resolve as it is within your clubs and fans ethos to borrow in order to gain an advantage.

I fully expect a 45-50 point season next year considering we are not going to be in Europe and I dont feel you will get near that in decades, especially with the financial clout we will have over you and other championship sides.

so the short answer....guesswork

what else is it going to be, all we can do is try and make as accurate a guess as possible based on factors we know.

you know for a fact that if we were to go up (or stay up) and have maybe 3 good years in the prem our debt would be significantly reduced (or at least have the potential to be) due to the financial rewards being a stable prem club brings (as you mentioned earlier in the thread, i believe you stated that you could be £30m per season better off than us should we stay in the champ)

i dont think it would at all. You have probably lost £30m by being in the Prem this year, its madness. Id expect that to continue.

and lets not forget that if a club becomes successful then the debt has little or no bearing on the club, swansea are one of the most financially stable clubs in the prem, why are they still finishing near the bottom?

we haven't once finished near the bottom. 11th, 9th and probably 12th the longer we stay there the stronger we will become..

so you don't think that having 9 points to play for and being 6 points off the drop would be considered "near the bottom" like has been said before, you could finish below us this season, obviously its unlikley but even to have a wild stab and say "swansea will beat cardiffs league position for 20 years" is madness...let alone trying to back it up with completley speculatory things such as predicted finances for both clubs. in 20 years we could win the champions league and you could be in the conference south. honestly that scenario is just as likley as you finishing above us 20 seasons in a row (in other words: chance)

another bout of i know everything! solid foundations mmm from outside they look very shakey regarding manager and players and not to mention spew interfering with managers perchasing players or was laudrup lying?? makes you wonder about your inabillity to keep managers for more than 2yrs! as for 20yrs before we are above you what bollocks could happen next year even this year as season not over, all possibillities regardless of the probabillities of it not happening. can i have lottery numbers for next week as you believe you know everything that will happen in future!

and financially you calculate that you will make x amount money but that is subject to circumstances behond even your brilliant financial mind! relegation higher wages & transfers but guess you know these figures for next 20yrs you wil be in premier.

Allan your post is full of bias stating what "could" be regardless of the possibilities.

My guess, and i am entirely aware of the fact it is a guess, is not based on such things as "we may win all our games and win the champions league, you dont know that" as yours is. Mine is based on what we know and what is likely to happen.

There is no "inability" to keep managers, we sell them for vast amounts of money unless in Laudrups case you decide not to work hard enough. As fans we all trust Huw implicitly and if he thinks a manager isnt doing the right things for Swansea then he will act. What I will say is thank god he signed Emnes who was excellent again at Newcastle.

To suggest we are not strong off the field is just fanciful nonsense. Lets have a sensible discussion shall we?

Well then im not sure what you mean by not getting high attendances will stagnate the club? I assumed you must mean finances?

What highs am I suggesting we will achieve? I haven't suggested reaching any highs apart from my opinion that being above you will be a sight seen for a long long time due to the differences in finances in Prem and champ clubs.

I dont know any other Orem club with the infrastructure we do. Maybe WBA but even then it is only an off field infrastructure where as ours has one on and off the field.

well you're either suggesting one of 2 things

1) swansea will kick on and become a regular top 10 side or more
2) or city will stay in the champ/slip down the leagues

if neither of these is the case then it stands to reason that our points difference will remain single figures when we are in the same division and, as mentioned earlier, statisticly we are bound to finish above you within the next 20 years.

so which of those two options do you think will ensure you a finish above us for 20 years? or do you think we'll both be there or there abouts and you constanly pip us by a few results...because you're a clever guy...you must see how unlikley that is

Im suggesting neither.

Our usual season brings 47 ish points, we have an even better side this year and would have gained even more should we have not had to play 60 matches including playing all over Europe in my opinion. You have 30 points and will probably be around the 33 point mark come seasons end. Thats a pretty big difference.

Our infrastructure allows sustainability, we can grow because of how we are run. You cant grow as you will always be handicapped by your debt, this is an intrinsic thing that takes decades to resolve as it is within your clubs and fans ethos to borrow in order to gain an advantage.

I fully expect a 45-50 point season next year considering we are not going to be in Europe and I dont feel you will get near that in decades, especially with the financial clout we will have over you and other championship sides.

so the short answer....guesswork

what else is it going to be, all we can do is try and make as accurate a guess as possible based on factors we know.

you know for a fact that if we were to go up (or stay up) and have maybe 3 good years in the prem our debt would be significantly reduced (or at least have the potential to be) due to the financial rewards being a stable prem club brings (as you mentioned earlier in the thread, i believe you stated that you could be £30m per season better off than us should we stay in the champ)

i dont think it would at all. You have probably lost £30m by being in the Prem this year, its madness. Id expect that to continue.

and lets not forget that if a club becomes successful then the debt has little or no bearing on the club, swansea are one of the most financially stable clubs in the prem, why are they still finishing near the bottom?

we haven't once finished near the bottom. 11th, 9th and probably 12th the longer we stay there the stronger we will become..

and please please enlighten me as to how you know how much money we have made or lost this season? or is it more guess work?

another bout of i know everything! solid foundations mmm from outside they look very shakey regarding manager and players and not to mention spew interfering with managers perchasing players or was laudrup lying?? makes you wonder about your inabillity to keep managers for more than 2yrs! as for 20yrs before we are above you what bollocks could happen next year even this year as season not over, all possibillities regardless of the probabillities of it not happening. can i have lottery numbers for next week as you believe you know everything that will happen in future!

and financially you calculate that you will make x amount money but that is subject to circumstances behond even your brilliant financial mind! relegation higher wages & transfers but guess you know these figures for next 20yrs you wil be in premier.

roathie is actually rupert murdoch and has skys TV rights all mapped out until 2040. Lives in oz, has an extensive knowledge of prem finances that not even the swansea board are privy to...all the pieces fit

Are you suggesting the Premier Leagues value will drop even though it is the biggest selling product on british TV?

Again you are not going with the probabilities.

Its like im having a conversation with someone regarding the fact I have paid off my mortgage so now have a house forever and them saying "what if a meteor comes and strikes it?", "what if there is a great flood and it gets washed away".

Im fully aware that it is based on external factors such as the continued major sponsorships, however my guess is based on the probability that they will remain and not the ridiculously improbably theory that they will not.

and please please enlighten me as to how you know how much money we have made or lost this season? or is it more guess work?

Your income is around £85m work from there and look what you will spend. If you dont know a figure then look elsewhere and make an educated and informed decision based on the most likely figure.

£50m on players (whether it is all owed this year or not is irrelevant)
£50m on wages
£10m on expansion.

Thats £110m outgoings and a £25m loss without even looking too hard.

and please please enlighten me as to how you know how much money we have made or lost this season? or is it more guess work?

Your income is around £85m work from there and look what you will spend. If you dont know a figure then look elsewhere and make an educated and informed decision based on the most likely figure.

£50m on players (whether it is all owed this year or not is irrelevant)
£50m on wages
£10m on expansion.

Thats £110m outgoings and a £25m loss without even looking too hard.

You might want to inform our Chairman he is wrong then as he told the trust a few weeks ago we will make a £12m profit this season.

so you don't think that having 9 points to play for and being 6 points off the drop would be considered "near the bottom" like has been said before, you could finish below us this season, obviously its unlikley but even to have a wild stab and say "swansea will beat cardiffs league position for 20 years" is madness...let alone trying to back it up with completley speculatory things such as predicted finances for both clubs. in 20 years we could win the champions league and you could be in the conference south. honestly that scenario is just as likley as you finishing above us 20 seasons in a row (in other words: chance)

Jesus Christ that os the most ridiculous thing ive read on here in ages, are you being serious?

You think there is just as much chance of you winning the champions league and us being in the conference south in 20 years than us finishing above you for 20 consecutive seasons (completely ignoring the fact that we have already done it for 3 years and if you go down it will make it a guaranteed 5).

Sorry but that is just ridiculous in the extreme.

and please please enlighten me as to how you know how much money we have made or lost this season? or is it more guess work?

Your income is around £85m work from there and look what you will spend. If you dont know a figure then look elsewhere and make an educated and informed decision based on the most likely figure.

£50m on players (whether it is all owed this year or not is irrelevant)
£50m on wages
£10m on expansion.

Thats £110m outgoings and a £25m loss without even looking too hard.

You might want to inform our Chairman he is wrong then as he told the trust a few weeks ago we will make a £12m profit this season.

Im sure he is fully aware.

Paper profits and actual profits are completely differing things. One is for the owners, the other is for the fans.

Example - your income was £20,000 and it was just enough for you and my family to live for the year leaving you with £2000 to save come years end..... If you then extravagantly bought a car for £50,000 at auction and they said "just pay us a grand now and we will have the other £49,000 next year".

You can say you have made a £1000 profit on the year if you wish but in reality your actions in that year have led you to be in debt by £49,000 meaning that £1000 profit isnt strictly yours as that along with £49,000 of future earnings is owed elsewhere.

and please please enlighten me as to how you know how much money we have made or lost this season? or is it more guess work?

Your income is around £85m work from there and look what you will spend. If you dont know a figure then look elsewhere and make an educated and informed decision based on the most likely figure.

£50m on players (whether it is all owed this year or not is irrelevant)
£50m on wages
£10m on expansion.

Thats £110m outgoings and a £25m loss without even looking too hard.

You might want to inform our Chairman he is wrong then as he told the trust a few weeks ago we will make a £12m profit this season.

Im sure he is fully aware.

Paper profits and actual profits are completely differing things. One is for the owners, the other is for the fans.

Example - your income was £20,000 and it was just enough for you and my family to live for the year leaving you with £2000 to save come years end..... If you then extravagantly bought a car for £50,000 at auction and they said "just pay us a grand now and we will have the other £49,000 next year".

You can say you have made a £1000 profit on the year if you wish but in reality your actions in that year have led you to be in debt by £49,000 meaning that £1000 profit isnt strictly yours as that along with £49,000 of future earnings is owed elsewhere.

So we should ignore what the official accounts will say then, as they mean nothing......not as if investors or buyers use them for anything........dear me Roathie, you will twist anything to suit that enormous head of yours

and please please enlighten me as to how you know how much money we have made or lost this season? or is it more guess work?

Your income is around £85m work from there and look what you will spend. If you dont know a figure then look elsewhere and make an educated and informed decision based on the most likely figure.

£50m on players (whether it is all owed this year or not is irrelevant)
£50m on wages
£10m on expansion.

Thats £110m outgoings and a £25m loss without even looking too hard.

You might want to inform our Chairman he is wrong then as he told the trust a few weeks ago we will make a £12m profit this season.

Im sure he is fully aware.

Paper profits and actual profits are completely differing things. One is for the owners, the other is for the fans.

Example - your income was £20,000 and it was just enough for you and my family to live for the year leaving you with £2000 to save come years end..... If you then extravagantly bought a car for £50,000 at auction and they said "just pay us a grand now and we will have the other £49,000 next year".

You can say you have made a £1000 profit on the year if you wish but in reality your actions in that year have led you to be in debt by £49,000 meaning that £1000 profit isnt strictly yours as that along with £49,000 of future earnings is owed elsewhere.

So we should ignore what the official accounts will say then, as they mean nothing......not as if investors or buyers use them for anything........dear me Roathie, you will twist anything to suit that enormous head of yours

The official accounts don't take into consideration future liability. Of course you can look at them and take important things such as changes in income etc

But you cannot look at how good a business model you have or indeed the state of your debt by looking at one set of accounts no.

Can you tell me, would you be happy enough if Tan bought Caulker for 1 billion but due to the fact he doesnt owe it all this year he only put £2 million loss on the accounts?

Well then im not sure what you mean by not getting high attendances will stagnate the club? I assumed you must mean finances?

What highs am I suggesting we will achieve? I haven't suggested reaching any highs apart from my opinion that being above you will be a sight seen for a long long time due to the differences in finances in Prem and champ clubs.

I dont know any other Orem club with the infrastructure we do. Maybe WBA but even then it is only an off field infrastructure where as ours has one on and off the field.

well you're either suggesting one of 2 things

1) swansea will kick on and become a regular top 10 side or more
2) or city will stay in the champ/slip down the leagues

if neither of these is the case then it stands to reason that our points difference will remain single figures when we are in the same division and, as mentioned earlier, statisticly we are bound to finish above you within the next 20 years.

so which of those two options do you think will ensure you a finish above us for 20 years? or do you think we'll both be there or there abouts and you constanly pip us by a few results...because you're a clever guy...you must see how unlikley that is

Im suggesting neither.

Our usual season brings 47 ish points, we have an even better side this year and would have gained even more should we have not had to play 60 matches including playing all over Europe in my opinion. You have 30 points and will probably be around the 33 point mark come seasons end. Thats a pretty big difference.

Our infrastructure allows sustainability, we can grow because of how we are run. You cant grow as you will always be handicapped by your debt, this is an intrinsic thing that takes decades to resolve as it is within your clubs and fans ethos to borrow in order to gain an advantage.

I fully expect a 45-50 point season next year considering we are not going to be in Europe and I dont feel you will get near that in decades, especially with the financial clout we will have over you and other championship sides.

To grow you need to invest, to grow you need to own your stadium and considerably increase its capacity. To grow your managers need to stop leaving you, or getting themselves purposely sacked (laudrup). To grow, you need the premiership a lot more than it needs you, because without its money you are struggling for revenue streams. A relegation and a year or two without promotion, then it's back to basic food rations for you. Now the onslaught, of debt, fan division, red shirts, same can be said of you, etc etc blah blah blah. p.s. Is all peaceful and harmonious down at the Liberty rugby ground?

If you keep Monk as manager then you will go down next year IMO.

Hopefully Bony shines at the World Cup and a big club buys him of you. I said we should have signed him in the summer. Instead we wasted 10 million on a 18 year old who had only had 1 season as a pro.

To grow you need to invest,

agreed to an extent. invest the clubs money and not someone elses plunging the club in debt.

to grow you need to own your stadium and considerably increase its capacity.

nonsense, why must you own your own stadium and why must the capacity increase? Inter milan dont own their own stadium as well as many other sides. Money from attendances is small fry in the Prem, important for football league as it makes up 40% of income, in the Prem it is little more than 10%.

To grow your managers need to stop leaving you

yet we have finished higher than the previous season 10 times in a row.

To grow, you need the premiership a lot more than it needs you, because without its money you are struggling for revenue streams. A relegation and a year or two without promotion, then it's back to basic food rations for you.

this is the only point i agree with. I dont envisage leaving it any time soon.

Now the onslaught, of debt, fan division, red shirts, same can be said of you, etc etc blah blah blah. p.s. Is all peaceful and harmonious down at the Liberty rugby ground?

same can be said of us? Really?

Do go on....

That is just mechanical soundbites, please expand.

Ive highlighted my queries in red.

If you keep Monk as manager then you will go down next year IMO.

Hopefully Bony shines at the World Cup and a big club buys him of you. I said we should have signed him in the summer. Instead we wasted 10 million on a 18 year old who had only had 1 season as a pro.

Not sure about that at all. For clubs wanting a mid table finish then as a rule you need around 45 points. Monk has taken command of an incredibly jaded side and had to make major changes halfway through the season to the way they play and is on course for a pro rata tally of 41 points.... It will probably be a lot more come seasons end.

He has shown excellent promise.

As for Bony, if anyone wants him then it is on our terms. £25m minimum.

Was lots of talk of "one season in the sun" upon our promotion, then it turned into "second season syndrome".... Now it seems like the fourth season in a row we will finish above you which in turn (if relegated) guarantees a 5th consecutive one.

When do you think will be the next time you will finish above Swansea. If we can keep this to the question and not turn it into an anger filled thread that would be much appreciated, just trying to decipher the actual thoughts behind the bravado of the Cardiff fan.

Discuss.


*disclaimer - If not interested then this isnt the thread for you.

No time soon, I think you guys have that level of organisation that we don't. It's been a hectic season, but who knows what'll happen in the future. I'd like to think some time in the next 5 years, but I think our heads have to be in the next 3 games for now!

so you don't think that having 9 points to play for and being 6 points off the drop would be considered "near the bottom" like has been said before, you could finish below us this season, obviously its unlikley but even to have a wild stab and say "swansea will beat cardiffs league position for 20 years" is madness...let alone trying to back it up with completley speculatory things such as predicted finances for both clubs. in 20 years we could win the champions league and you could be in the conference south. honestly that scenario is just as likley as you finishing above us 20 seasons in a row (in other words: chance)

Jesus Christ that os the most ridiculous thing ive read on here in ages, are you being serious?

You think there is just as much chance of you winning the champions league and us being in the conference south in 20 years than us finishing above you for 20 consecutive seasons (completely ignoring the fact that we have already done it for 3 years and if you go down it will make it a guaranteed 5).

Sorry but that is just ridiculous in the extreme.

no roathie both statements are ridiculous as there is no base for either of them with the clubs so close in standing at the moment.

like i said before yes we have large debts. but once some idiot told me that TV rights will continue to increase year on year so as i mentioned a few good years in the prem could see that corrected no problem.

but the guy who told me that must have been wrong right?

tbh i dont think you believe what you say, you're a clever bloke and knew the reaction you would get with this ridiculous statement...thats why you started the thread. you're usually a decent poster but you come out with this shit from time to time and im sure its just to start an argument...maybe out of boredom? maybe to show how bright you are? i might be entirely wrong but its not really a decent debate topic if you're just guessing then tell other people their guesses are wrong for this reason and that reason

so you don't think that having 9 points to play for and being 6 points off the drop would be considered "near the bottom" like has been said before, you could finish below us this season, obviously its unlikley but even to have a wild stab and say "swansea will beat cardiffs league position for 20 years" is madness...let alone trying to back it up with completley speculatory things such as predicted finances for both clubs. in 20 years we could win the champions league and you could be in the conference south. honestly that scenario is just as likley as you finishing above us 20 seasons in a row (in other words: chance)

Jesus Christ that os the most ridiculous thing ive read on here in ages, are you being serious?

You think there is just as much chance of you winning the champions league and us being in the conference south in 20 years than us finishing above you for 20 consecutive seasons (completely ignoring the fact that we have already done it for 3 years and if you go down it will make it a guaranteed 5).

Sorry but that is just ridiculous in the extreme.

no roathie both statements are ridiculous as there is no base for either of them with the clubs so close in standing at the moment.

but thats the point. They arent close. The infrastructure couldnt be further apart.

We will most likely be guaranteed to be above you for 5 consecutive years in 2 weeks time. How you think us keeping that uo for another 15 is anything remotely similar in probability to you winning the champions league and us being in the conference south in the same time frame is just that of nonsense. Im sure you agree.

Mine guess is based on fact and probability and it 2 weeks away from being 25% complete.

like i said before yes we have large debts. but once some idiot told me that TV rights will continue to increase year on year so as i mentioned a few good years in the prem could see that corrected no problem.

again i disagree, your infrastructure and ethos is based on debt, the more you get the more you spend. You had the chance to wipe out debt this year. What did you do? Spend £110m.

but the guy who told me that must have been wrong right?

he is not wrong that ot is possible to do it, he is wrong of he said it is probable that YOU would do it.

tbh i dont think you believe what you say, you're a clever bloke and knew the reaction you would get with this ridiculous statement...thats why you started the thread. you're usually a decent poster but you come out with this shit from time to time and im sure its just to start an argument...maybe out of boredom? maybe to show how bright you are? i might be entirely wrong but its not really a decent debate topic if you're just guessing then tell other people their guesses are wrong for this reason and that reason

what? I havent told anyone that anybodies guesses are wrong.

The only people i have taken umbrage to are those that have said "you are wrong, I could just as well say we will win the champions league". That is fanciful nonsense not based on reality. Mine has already come 25% true if you are relegated, i dont think it is at all far fetched that what is already happening will just simply continue.

There is a major difference.

Was lots of talk of "one season in the sun" upon our promotion, then it turned into "second season syndrome".... Now it seems like the fourth season in a row we will finish above you which in turn (if relegated) guarantees a 5th consecutive one.

When do you think will be the next time you will finish above Swansea. If we can keep this to the question and not turn it into an anger filled thread that would be much appreciated, just trying to decipher the actual thoughts behind the bravado of the Cardiff fan.

Discuss.


*disclaimer - If not interested then this isnt the thread for you.

No time soon, I think you guys have that level of organisation that we don't. It's been a hectic season, but who knows what'll happen in the future. I'd like to think some time in the next 5 years, but I think our heads have to be in the next 3 games for now!

Good answer. That is the sort of response i was looking for rather than the defensive fantasies that have played out as a result.

and please please enlighten me as to how you know how much money we have made or lost this season? or is it more guess work?

Your income is around £85m work from there and look what you will spend. If you dont know a figure then look elsewhere and make an educated and informed decision based on the most likely figure.

£50m on players (whether it is all owed this year or not is irrelevant)
£50m on wages
£10m on expansion.

Thats £110m outgoings and a £25m loss without even looking too hard.

You might want to inform our Chairman he is wrong then as he told the trust a few weeks ago we will make a £12m profit this season.

Im sure he is fully aware.

Paper profits and actual profits are completely differing things. One is for the owners, the other is for the fans.

Example - your income was £20,000 and it was just enough for you and my family to live for the year leaving you with £2000 to save come years end..... If you then extravagantly bought a car for £50,000 at auction and they said "just pay us a grand now and we will have the other £49,000 next year".

You can say you have made a £1000 profit on the year if you wish but in reality your actions in that year have led you to be in debt by £49,000 meaning that £1000 profit isnt strictly yours as that along with £49,000 of future earnings is owed elsewhere.

So we should ignore what the official accounts will say then, as they mean nothing......not as if investors or buyers use them for anything........dear me Roathie, you will twist anything to suit that enormous head of yours

The official accounts don't take into consideration future liability. Of course you can look at them and take important things such as changes in income etc

But you cannot look at how good a business model you have or indeed the state of your debt by looking at one set of accounts no.

Can you tell me, would you be happy enough if Tan bought Caulker for 1 billion but due to the fact he doesnt owe it all this year he only put £2 million loss on the accounts?

The player bought then gets listed in the accounts as an asset, so it evens itself out. Ridiculous analogy about Caulker as he's worth no where near that amount, he is however, worth around what we actually paid for him.

Was lots of talk of "one season in the sun" upon our promotion, then it turned into "second season syndrome".... Now it seems like the fourth season in a row we will finish above you which in turn (if relegated) guarantees a 5th consecutive one.

When do you think will be the next time you will finish above Swansea. If we can keep this to the question and not turn it into an anger filled thread that would be much appreciated, just trying to decipher the actual thoughts behind the bravado of the Cardiff fan.

Discuss.


*disclaimer - If not interested then this isnt the thread for you.

No time soon, I think you guys have that level of organisation that we don't. It's been a hectic season, but who knows what'll happen in the future. I'd like to think some time in the next 5 years, but I think our heads have to be in the next 3 games for now!

Good answer. That is the sort of response i was looking for rather than the defensive fantasies that have played out as a result.

We can hope I suppose, and I guess anything really is possible next season if we manage to stay up. But like I said we're just a bit all over the place at the moment, ever since the mid-season when Mackay and Moody left. We just kinda lost all of the wind in our sails. At any rate, I'd rather 10% of the premiership clubs were welsh, stop all the moaners, and the derby games are exciting!

so you don't think that having 9 points to play for and being 6 points off the drop would be considered "near the bottom" like has been said before, you could finish below us this season, obviously its unlikley but even to have a wild stab and say "swansea will beat cardiffs league position for 20 years" is madness...let alone trying to back it up with completley speculatory things such as predicted finances for both clubs. in 20 years we could win the champions league and you could be in the conference south. honestly that scenario is just as likley as you finishing above us 20 seasons in a row (in other words: chance)

Jesus Christ that os the most ridiculous thing ive read on here in ages, are you being serious?

You think there is just as much chance of you winning the champions league and us being in the conference south in 20 years than us finishing above you for 20 consecutive seasons (completely ignoring the fact that we have already done it for 3 years and if you go down it will make it a guaranteed 5).

Sorry but that is just ridiculous in the extreme.

no roathie both statements are ridiculous as there is no base for either of them with the clubs so close in standing at the moment.

but thats the point. They arent close. The infrastructure couldnt be further apart.

We will most likely be guaranteed to be above you for 5 consecutive years in 2 weeks time. How you think us keeping that uo for another 15 is anything remotely similar in probability to you winning the champions league and us being in the conference south in the same time frame is just that of nonsense. Im sure you agree.

Mine guess is based on fact and probability and it 2 weeks away from being 25% complete.

like i said before yes we have large debts. but once some idiot told me that TV rights will continue to increase year on year so as i mentioned a few good years in the prem could see that corrected no problem.

again i disagree, your infrastructure and ethos is based on debt, the more you get the more you spend. You had the chance to wipe out debt this year. What did you do? Spend £110m.

but the guy who told me that must have been wrong right?

he is not wrong that ot is possible to do it, he is wrong of he said it is probable that YOU would do it.

tbh i dont think you believe what you say, you're a clever bloke and knew the reaction you would get with this ridiculous statement...thats why you started the thread. you're usually a decent poster but you come out with this shit from time to time and im sure its just to start an argument...maybe out of boredom? maybe to show how bright you are? i might be entirely wrong but its not really a decent debate topic if you're just guessing then tell other people their guesses are wrong for this reason and that reason

what? I havent told anyone that anybodies guesses are wrong.

The only people i have taken umbrage to are those that have said "you are wrong, I could just as well say we will win the champions league". That is fanciful nonsense not based on reality. Mine has already come 25% true if you are relegated, i dont think it is at all far fetched that what is already happening will just simply continue.

There is a major difference.

i think all you need to do is look at the football league top to botom 20 years ago (or 15 for that matter) to see how quickly a club can rise and fall with no indication that they will do so at the time. you are basing your guesses on the assumptions that both clubs will be run the same way by the same people for that amount of time. where as in my living memory i have not seen a regime at either club last nearly as long as that.

for what its worth though, i thought you meant you would finish above us 20 seasons on the ounce starting from now, not inclusing the last few years as well...seeing as you asked "when will cardiff finish above swansea next? then answered you're own question with the answer 20 years. at the moment you are 0% right and in 3 weeks will be 5% right (thanks for the pedantic lessons )

The player bought then gets listed in the accounts as an asset, so it evens itself out. Ridiculous analogy about Caulker as he's worth no where near that amount, he is however, worth around what we actually paid for him.

No they don't. Players are not assets, once their contracts run out they are worthless and also the value is subjective. Impossible to do.

Do you think you will ever get £11m for Medel? You would be lucky to get half.

To grow you need to invest,

agreed to an extent. invest the clubs money and not someone elses plunging the club in debt.

to grow you need to own your stadium and considerably increase its capacity.

nonsense, why must you own your own stadium and why must the capacity increase? Inter milan dont own their own stadium as well as many other sides. Money from attendances is small fry in the Prem, important for football league as it makes up 40% of income, in the Prem it is little more than 10%.

Many other sides???? How big is the San Siro again?
To grow your managers need to stop leaving you

yet we have finished higher than the previous season 10 times in a row.

Surely managers leaving will not help continuity.

To grow, you need the premiership a lot more than it needs you, because without its money you are struggling for revenue streams. A relegation and a year or two without promotion, then it's back to basic food rations for you.

this is the only point i agree with. I dont envisage leaving it any time soon.

But IF you do.... curtains.

Now the onslaught, of debt, fan division, red shirts, same can be said of you, etc etc blah blah blah. p.s. Is all peaceful and harmonious down at the Liberty rugby ground?

same can be said of us? Really?
I[color=#0000FF] mean't that you would come back to my post with a 'same could be said of you' comment, if we go down and fail to come back. We are actively investing in our long term future, whilst admittedly gambling with it's short term future. I think we will be just fine, thank you very much for your concern though.

Do go on....[/color]

That is just mechanical soundbites, please expand.

Ive highlighted my queries in red.

Back at you in Blue. The irony of it all.

i think all you need to do is look at the football league top to botom 20 years ago (or 15 for that matter) to see how quickly a club can rise and fall with no indication that they will do so at the time. you are basing your guesses on the assumptions that both clubs will be run the same way by the same people for that amount of time. where as in my living memory i have not seen a regime at either club last nearly as long as that.

yep and I bet you every club did not have the infrastructure or ethos we do. Im not assuming we will be run the same way, i know we will. We are part owned by fans and we will always have a say, shares wont be sold to anyone that doesnt have the interests of our ethos at heart.

As for you guys, you have been run this way for the last decade and it will only continue as your fans demand it. Stability and steady growth is not good enough.

for what its worth though, i thought you meant you would finish above us 20 seasons on the ounce starting from now, not inclusing the last few years as well...seeing as you asked "when will cardiff finish above swansea next? then answered you're own question with the answer 20 years. at the moment you are 0% right and in 3 weeks will be 5% right (thanks for the pedantic lessons )

does it matter? Does that 5 seasons change anything? Im simply predicting that what is already happening will simply continue to do so, this is based on the financial gap that will continue to grow as we are in the Prem while you are saddles with debt and an ethos to continue that.

I dont believe that is particularly outlandish.